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Georgy Gounev | Columns | Serbianna.com THOUGHTS
On Obama visit to Turkey
By Georgy Gounev
April 6, 2009

It sounds strange but this visit could achieve way more than one could expect from a trip that looks more like a slightly extended stop over, precisely because there are some troubled areas in the American- Turkish relations. In case President Obama addresses those issues openly and forcefully, mixing frankness with firmness, and charm with the ability to present some new approaches, it’s quite possible that the Turkish stretch of his   international itinerary could be the most successful.

There are, of course, many uncertainties surrounding the visit. At the same time however, at least one thing, is absolutely sure: President Obama and the First Lady will be exposed to the entire warmth of the famous Turkish   hospitality.

Speaking of hospitality, currently Turkey is the most anti- American country in the world. According to the latest poll, only eight percents of the Turks have positive opinion of the United States, while 82 percents have announced their negative attitude. The only consolation that could bring joy into the hearts of extremely optimistic and sunny personalities,  is the fact that during the spring of 2003, i. e. in the immediate aftermath of the American invasion of Iraq, the percentage was even higher – as a matter of fact, 90 percents of the Turks have declared their anti- American sentiments.

There was light at the bottom of the tunnel though. Evidently the  background , youth charisma, and the stunning victory of Barak Obama in the presidential elections,  has touched the hearts of the villagers in the area of Van ,(Eastern Turkey), to the point of pushing them to roast 44 lambs  for the need of a gigantic barbeque in honor of the newly elected 44 th President of the United States…

There could be little doubt that two very serious issues will come up during the   negotiations: the role of Turkey in the aftermath of the American withdrawal from Iraq, and the search for an exit from the Iranian nuclear imbroglio. There are too many thorny problems such as the Armenian Genocide for instance, which in case of its neglect during the negotiations, will continue to loom even larger  on the horizon.

Another big question is to what extent President Obama would be ready to endorse the candidacy of Turkey for the coveted membership in the European Union against the will of many of current members.

From American point of view the most important among the challenges possessing the potential for a dramatic increase of the amount of tension in the bilateral relations are the Turkish- Iraqi relations. The main task of the American guest would be to find out the best and mutually beneficial solution to the already dangerous situation existing on the Turkish border with Iraq, which could only deteriorate in the aftermath of the American withdrawal.  In simplest possible terms, the problem is that the Kurdish areas of Iraq are at the same time the most pro- American sections of the country, and the most anti-Turkish.

This American- Turkish relationship has been seriously aggravated by some statements made some time ago by the Vice President of the United States ,Joe Bidden, to the effect that Iraq is an artificial state where three hating each other groups have been forced to live together. Those statements caused a shock wave in Ankara, because if Iraq falls apart, then its Kurdish part already possessing an established tradition of self-government in the course of the last two decades, could become a role model  for the large and rebellious  Kurdish minority of Turkey.

Another problem that should be handled with extreme caution by the President is the fact that any kind of American support for the Turkish candidacy for membership of the European Union will add new oil to the anti- American fires burning Europe . Vice versa, any American refusal to back up this candidacy will add huge chunk of ice to the frozen river keeping under its surface the hostile Turkish attitude towards the United States intact.

Obviously, from Turkish point of view, such important event like President Obama’s visit shouldn’t be marred by any bad feelings brought about by the thorny issue of the Armenian genocide. At the same time the American silence on this problem will bring about new level of anti- American negativity given that together with some of the most prestigious Turkish intellectuals, Europe has recognized the” unpleasant” historical fact.

On a more practical level, President Obama’s visit to Turkey should have been combined with a visit to Serbia.  Such a visit would pave the way for the normalization of the relations between both countries. Such act would diminish the anti- American feelings raising all over the Balkan area due to the fears that the United States are ignoring the interests of the Christian population of the region. If a visit to Belgrade would be too much to be in keeping with the Turkish gambit of the Obama administration, then at least a short stop over in Greece, Bulgaria or Romania would play a positive role and will send a right message to the nations of South Eastern Europe that don’t feel comfortable in the shade of the growing Turkish might and influence.

Luckily, there is one crucial area where the interests of both countries coincide. Neither the United States nor Turkey would want to see the emergence of Iran as a nuclear power. Even if some kind of understanding on this critically important issue comes out of Mr Obama’s visit to Turkey, it would be well worth the trip.


Georgy Gounev
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