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Has Cold War II commenced?
By Vojin Joksimovich
July 9, 2007
Vojin Joksimovich has served as the first Vice President of the San Diego North County Chapter of the World Affairs Council in charge of the program for the last three years. The Council meets weekly on Thursdays throughout the year (about 50 sessions per year) and covers a spectrum of foreign affairs subjects. The speakers are either distinguished guests or members. On June 28, 2007 (the Vidovdan day) a San Diego State University professor was supposed to address the Council on the subject of Central Asia. He cancelled and Vojin proposed instead, reflecting the outcome of the G-8 meeting in Germany, a debate on the subject has Cold War II commenced? The Council accepted and the debate was initiated by a three member panel of speakers addressing the following subjects: (a) Missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic or Euro-ABM program; (b) Kosovo independence issue; and (c) Other U.S./Russia hot issues as authored in an essay by the former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko published in the May/June 2007 issue of Foreign Affairs. The members participated in the second part of the program. Vojin Joksimovich notes on the subject of Kosovo independence are reproduced below.
· Today marks the 618 anniversary of the Kosovo battle between the Serbs and the Ottoman Empire; battle between Christianity and Islam which led to the loss of Serbian sovereignty in 1463 and enabled the Turks to march on to Budapest and Vienna. In 2007 we are experiencing another Kosovo battle. This time the battle has been a diplomatic one thus far. A battle between the U.S. and Serbia. The battle between adherences to foundations of international law vs. force.
· The Ottoman records of 1445 show that Kosovo & Metohija population consisted almost exclusively of Serbs (~99%) as the Serbs started populating Kosovo in the 6th century and created there the Serbian kingdom and the Serbian holy land with some 1300 churches and monasteries.
· Over 5 centuries of Serb ethnic cleansing followed first by the Ottomans, then Austro-Hungarian Empire, then Hitler-Mussolini Axis, then communist dictator Tito and now U.S./NATO using Albanians as their proxies.
· Serb-Albanian conflict, which is almost 130 yrs old was reignited in 1990s as the Islamist and U.S./NATO interests merged leading to a jihad against the Serb-Orthodox Christians
· In 1994 Osama bin Laden established a base in Albania after his phenomenal success in Bosnia and started to arm and infiltrate the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), which was then classified by the State Department as terrorist organization. Subsequently the Western intelligence agencies (CIA, MI6, and BND) joined in support of the KLA. After the KLA insurrection from Albania was defeated by the Serbian police, Clinton/Blair decided to go to war against Serbia and in the process hijacked holocaust to wrest Kosovo from Serbia.
· UN Resolution 1244 ended the war, created UN/NATO protectorate but reaffirmed the commitment of member states to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Serbia.
· After 8 years the UN/NATO protectorate has dismally failed (as discussed in Peace at any Price: How the World Failed Kosovo by Iain King and Whit Mason) and in the process grossly violated the UN 1244. Having created a royal mess so called international community started looking for the way out. A centerpiece of the program: human rights eight point package ahead of status approach was jettisoned. In 2003, a UN police spokesman said that Kosovo “is not a society affected by organized crime, but a society founded on organized crime.”
· Former Finnish President, Marti Ahtisaari was appointed in 2005 as the special UN envoy to “mediate” the interethnic conflict. He has been the wrong man for the job from day one as illustrated with his statement that Serbia must give in because it is guilty as a nation—nobody must be allowed to pin a feeling of national guilt on any group of people only individuals proclaimed by many including the ICTY. Recently BND sent the documentation to the UN Secretary General accusing Ahtisaari that he took the bribe from the Albanian mafia.
· On March 26, 2007 Ahtisaari submitted a report to the UN Security
Council recommending Kosovo independence supervised by the EU with continued
presence of the NATO troops on the ground. In my humble opinion, the Ahtisaari
approach has been designed to shift the intractable situation to somebody
else and if it provokes either the Serbs or Albanians, or both, so be it.
Then they would be blamed for the impending disaster. Turning water into
wine is nothing compared to transforming the republic of heroin, black
hole of Europe, into a model democratic multi-ethnic state. But that is
the miracle Ahtisaari has come up with.
· Serbia with help from resurgent Russia and some other countries has opposed the Ahtisaari plan as well as the three drafts of the Western sponsored UN resolution. In the second draft only a few words were changed. The third draft filed on June 20 sponsored by the U.S./UK/France proposed the postponement of supervised independence for 120 days, this time would be given to the Serbian and Albanian negotiators to reach an agreement with automatic imposition of the Ahtisaari plan if the parties cannot agree. In Moscow and Belgrade the third draft was dead on arrival. Russia opposes artificial deadlines and automatism and Serbia is not interested in the negotiations when the final outcome is predetermined and amounts to violation of the UN charter and the Serbian constitution. Serbia is looking for a sustainable solution. Imposed solution is not sustainable as it would plant the seed for the next conflict.
· Russia and Serbia, as well as a number of UN Security Council members such as China, Indonesia and South Africa, believe that the rule of law should be the keystone of the international order using WWII experiences as an example. Kosovo independence established on the 15% of the Republic of Serbia territory would violate the UN Charter, Helsinki Accords, Badinter Commission and the UN 1244 as well as the previous UN Kosovo resolutions. Kosovo independence would be the first time in post WWII history that the boundaries of a nation state had been drawn against its will. Why would the UN violate own Charter to create the second Albanian state in Europe?
· Russia and Serbia, as well as some neighboring countries, point out that Kosovo independence would destabilize the region. Hence they are looking for a sustainable solution which would preserve Serbia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty with everything else being negotiable and subject to agreement between Belgrade and Pristina. A Serbian plan is now in Putin’s hand that supposedly he will put on the table when he meets with President Bush on July 1&2 at Kennebunkport.
· In addition Kosovo independence would establish a far-reaching precedent for many separatists round the world. Why does Kosovo deserve independence while South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Transniestria and Nagorno-Karabakh and others do not? The UN Resolution sponsors make the case that Kosovo is a sui generis case using the argument that Serbia has lost the right to rule the Kosovo because Milosevic’s regime opposed NATO and committed acts of ethnic cleansing. The ethnic cleansing arguments stated are, by and large, based on half truth and outright falsehoods. Besides the logic is that the history both before Milosevic (millennium old) and after Milosevic does not count.
· Indonesia, a Muslim country and a UN Security Council member, is not sold on the Ahtisaari plan and the sui generis Kosovo case and proposed that the Kosovo issue be deferred to the EU at the time when the EU is ready to accept both Serbia and Kosovo as members.
· For radical Islamists Kosovo represents a jihad. Why the US on one hand is fighting jihadists in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere but is in the business of creating the Islamist states in the Balkans is paradoxical. Part of the “strategic concept” for dismemberment of former Yugoslavia has been the appeasement of the Islamist world, which started under president Bush 41 and then was embraced by the Clinton administration and now by Bush 43. As early as 1992, the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) demanded independence for Bosnia and Kosovo and division of Macedonia. The U.S./NATO has essentially complied with these wishes. Bush announced yesterday, at the rededication ceremony of the Islamic Center of Washington DC, that he will appoint a special U.S. envoy to the OIC. This speaker considers the OIC to be Islaminterna analogous to what cominterna was.
· Since announcement of the Ahtisaari plan I must have read over 100 columns and editorials on the subject. Here are some headlines: “Russia still opposed, Russia digs in heels, and Russia refuses to budge.” After exercises in bullying these articles ad nauseam reiterated that Russia was supporting its co-religionist and Slavic historic ally. There was hardly any appreciation that Yeltsin’s Russia is history and resurgent Putin’s Russia is the reality. Kosovo was one of the reasons why Yeltsin had to go. Here is what Putin said in Zagreb and Istanbul this weekend at the Balkans Energy Summit and the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization meetings: “The Balkans and the Black Sea have always been a sphere of our special interests and it is natural a resurgent Russia is returning here.” If Putin gave in on Kosovo his efforts to re-establish Russia as a great power would be severely undermined.
· Last week in Washington we witnessed a heated exchange on Kosovo issue between members of the Russian Duma Foreign Relations committee and their U.S. colleagues. Natalia Narochnitskaya, a Russian lawmaker, made a strong case against independence while Congressmen Lantos and Engel, long-time advocates of Kosovo independence and major recipients of contributions from the Albanian lobby, threatened that the UN might be bypassed in case of a Russian veto, and that Kosovo could unilaterally declare independence. They went as far as claiming that the U.S. would recognize Kosovo next day after declaration of independence and even to be followed by the EU members. However, the EU ministers have reiterated again this week their support for a UN resolution but will not back unilateral declaration as it would divide the EU like the Iraq war did.
· Some expect much in the way of compromise from the Bush/Putin meeting this coming weekend. I am personally skeptical especially after reading the statement from the American ambassador to Serbia: “We believe that a compromise has already been achieved.”
· I will conclude with an analogy between Kosovo and the U.S.
Southwest where we live. If Bush were to deliver 15% of the Serbian territory
to Kosovo Albanians, who had never owned Kosovo, he would then establish
a precedent for the return of the U.S. Southwest to Mexico. There are numerous
organizations which are attempting to annex California, Arizona, New Mexico,
Texas plus Southern Colorado to create “Republica Del Norte.”