Obama’s top priority is to save democratic capitalism. It is a Herculean task to overhaul a dysfunctional financial system, to deal with consequences of a moribund economy, and to reduce huge astonishing nation’s indebtedness. The Congress and President Obama launched the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, which must be history’s most expensive panic driven government giveaway. It is mind-bending how this 1,100 page $787 billion hodge-podge stimulus package is supposed to create 3.5 million jobs! Rational connection between U.S. problems and solutions is simply not there. Presidential candidate Romney appropriately observed said: “Stimulate the economy not government.” Is this the case of Obama’s economic team having too much faith in government’s omnipotence?  Obama’s chief of staff, Ron Emanuel, offered a Machiavellian explanation: “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And this crisis provides the opportunity for us to do things that you could not do before.” So it amounts to consolidation of power in the hands of the Democratic Party?

An assertion is made herein that a phase-out of Pax Americana or strategic retreat from foreign non-vital commitments, those that do not affect real natural security of the country, is a necessary ingredient for saving the American economy. The U.S. withdrawals from Vietnam in the 1970s, from Lebanon in the 1980s, and Somalia in the 1990s were smart moves which saved many lives and benefited the economy. Otherwise President Obama might conceivably follow the Soviet President Gorbachev footsteps of dismembering the country instead of the external Empire.

ROOT CAUSES: AMERICAN HUBRIS

The same hubris that drove the Iraq war, with delusion that the U.S. could transform the Middle East, drove the Wall Street leaders over a similar steep cliff. President Bush’s neocons did not want only to march on Baghdad. Andrew Bacevich in The Limits of Power wrote: “In their eyes, Iraq only qualified as an interim objective, a mere way station in a vastly more ambitious enterprise. Baghdad was not Berlin 1945; it was Warsaw circa 1939. The ultimate purpose of that exercise was to transform a huge swath of the Islamic world stretching from Morocco all the way through Pakistan and Central Asia to Indonesia and the southern Philippines....The ultimate aim of that strategy were nothing less than “to remake the world” or at least what the administration referred to as the Greater Middle East.”

Similarly, greedy Wall Street CEO’s were manipulating the free markets and thus remaking the world of business to eliminate any “restrictive” regulatory standards and in the process creating a form of kleptocracy to benefit their insatiable aspirations for unearned wealth. The U.S. Empire is now crumbling together with the economic assumptions that financed it. Russian Prime Minister Putin said at the World Economic Forum in Davos: “The entire economic growth system, where one regional center prints money without respite and consumes material wealth, while other regional center manufactures inexpensive goods and saves money printed by other governments, has suffered a major setback. The entire system is based on the generation of “unearned wealth, a loan that will have to be repaid by future generations.”

Several other opinions on the financial equivalent of the Pearl Harbor follow prior to addressing the Pax Americana issue.

NIALL FERGUSON

Niall Ferguson, a distinguished history professor at Harvard, Oxford and Stanford, in the Los Angeles Times article entitled Keynes can’t help us now, wrote: “Governments cling to the delusion that a crisis of excess debt can be solved creating more debt. Today America is Argentina. Europe is Argentina. Former investment banks and ordinary households are Argentina.” This comparison with Argentina shook this writer up as Argentina to him means perpetual chaos.

JOSCHKA FISCHER

Former German foreign minister, Joschka Fischer, who while in the office contributed to Albright’s hubris of bombing Serbia for 78 days, has ably summarized in Die Zeit warning signs that Pax Americana is coming to an end: “Due to Guantanamo and torture, America has lost her moral credibility. Thanks to Iraq war, Iran has achieved regional supremacy in the Middle East. American military power has become overstretched due to a wrong and unnecessary war; Bush inherited a balanced budget from Clinton and has since acquired a huge mountain of debt; China is now America’s largest creditor; the dollar’s role as the dominant’s global reserve currency is seriously endangered; the American financial system is threatened with collapse; and the only answer to this crisis, an existential threat to the entire global economy, is nationalization by Washington’s Republican government!” In summary, imperial overreach and financial indiscipline are root causes.

ROBERT PAPE

Robert Pape of the University of Chicago wrote in the National Interest: “America is in unprecedented decline. The self-inflicted wounds of the Iraq war, growing government debt, increasingly negative current-account balances and other internal economic weaknesses have cost the United States real power in today’s world of rapidly spreading knowledge and technology. If present trend continue, we will look at the Bush administration years as the death knell of American hegemony.”

Pape’s findings are based on the assumption that the size of an economy relative to potential rivals ultimately determines the limits of power in international politics.” Some statistics during the Bush-43 administration prove his point. Between 2000 and 2008, the U.S. share of the world economic product plunged from 31% to 23%. This is one of the largest declines in modern history only surpassed by the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

DENNIS BLAIR

Dennis Blair, the new intelligence chief, testified in the Congress that the economic collapse is the most serious security peril facing the U.S., threatening to topple governments, trigger waves of refugees and undermine the ability of U.S. allies to help in Afghanistan and elsewhere. Economic crisis had become greater security concern than terrorism. The global economic meltdown is in progress affecting countries from Italy to Indonesia, from Chile to China, from Egypt to India. Japan, the world’s second largest economy, is facing the worst economic crisis since WWII. UN estimates that 50 million workers around the world could lose their jobs in 2009. The World Bank says that the crisis could push an additional 100 million people into poverty. More than a million Frenchmen took to the streets.

PAX AMERICANA

Wikipedia defines Pax Americana (term modeled on the Pax Romana of the Roman Empire) as the period of relative peace in the Western world since the conclusion of WWII in 1945, coinciding with the dominant military and economic position of the United States. “During this period, no armed conflict has emerged among major Western nations themselves, and no nuclear weapons have been used, although the United States and its allies have been involved in various regional wars.” It emphasizes that the period of peace was “relative peace.” Wars continued to occur but it was still a prosperous time for both Western and Roman civilizations.

The term Pax Americana has been used both by proponents and critics of the U.S. foreign policies and thus it carries different connotations. As an example it has been used by neocons in the context of the New American Century, but also by critics to characterize American hyperpower or hegemony as imperialist. This author uses the latter context to define the U.S. foreign policies after the Cold War end and the fall of the Soviet Empire. The U.S. became to sole superpower and started abusing its world dominance.

As a result, America is currently perceived as an arrogant and ugly imperial power. It invades—but masks invasions with oxymorons like Clinton/Blair “humanitarian intervention;” it bombs and uses another oxymoron “collateral damage” to cover up for war crimes; it occupies; it contaminates with radioactivity but does not clean up; it imposes devastating economic sanctions on innocent population; it violates the international laws including the Geneva conventions as well as the UN Charter, Helsinki Accords and UN Resolutions; and it interferes in internal affairs of other countries more so than any other country on the planet.

A champion of these policies was former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright reflecting the Clinton practice of the Pax Americana. She will be remembered for her hubris --- If we have to use force; it is because we are America. We are the indispensable nation. We stand tall. We see further into the future. Asked on “60 Minutes” about the UNICEF report, which estimated up to half a million Iraqi children had died as a result to devastating economic sanctions, she responded “I think this is a very hard choice, but the price ---we think the price is worth it.” Her crowning glory was premeditated bombing of Serbia. She said “the Serbs need a little bombing.” Little amounted to 78 days. She has now written a book Memo to President-elect. I hope that Obama doesn’t pay attention to the book, but I am sure Hillary will. For her Albright is a roll-model and a mentor. After all, she appointed Albright using her influence with Bill, who wanted to appoint Richard Holbrooke. “Hillary combines Madeleine Albright’s zeal for bombs and Dick Cheney’s vision,” wrote Steve Chapman in the Chicago Tribune.

ADVICE FROM FORMER BOLIVIAN PRESIDENT

It is interesting what former president of Bolivia, Carlos Mesa, said in an interview with the LAT:”The U.S. has to end its imperial attitude of giving instructions, imposing models and instead arrive at consensus respectfully with its interlocutors no matter how small they might be. The U.S. has a very urgent task ahead of it, which is to recover its moral values so that we can believe in it again as leader of the free world.” Furthermore, Carlos Mesa said: “You can’t give classes on morals if you’re not applying them in your own territory.” He refers here to Guantanamo detention facility and welcomes its closure. Also, he suggests lifting the embargo on Cuba and reforming the OAS in which Cuba is invited to return, and in which the U.S. lowers its influence.

RESTORING AMERICAN REPUTATION WORLDWIDE

Selected statements quoted above, as examples, should clearly make the case that Obama’s second top priority must be to restore American reputation in the world by phasing out the Pax Americana. America still continues to be the world’s most powerful nation capable of defending its vital interests, but cannot defend any longer its worldwide hegemony. Obama will have a good start of restoring American credibility if he initially focuses on: adhering to the international laws including the UN Charter, abandoning encirclement of Russia, expediting withdrawal from Iraq, abandoning efforts of amputating sovereign countries like Serbia and giving up efforts of a military victory in Afghanistan. Regretfully, Obama has selected a wrong foreign policy team for these tasks.

WRONG FOREIGN POLICY TEAM

For the tall task of making a U-turn in U.S. foreign policies Obama has selected a wrong foreign policy team amounting to Obama/Clinton administration. I use this term not only because of Hillary, but because so many other appointees have been recycled from the Clinton administration.
The Clintonites are also called neolibs (liberal warmongers). They are on the opposite side of the political spectrum from Bush’s neocons, but when it comes to interventionism they are equally dangerous. They abuse the American military, and cause immense sufferings to people on the ground to satisfy their ambitions of world hegemony. It must be said that the world has changed a lot since the Clinton days, so they will not be able to do what they did then. It should be noted that Obama had more than 300 foreign policy and military advisers in the campaign. Most of them had views different from those of Clintonites. They were not offered jobs in the Obama administration. One of them is retired Marine Gen. Anthony Zinni, an outspoken critic of the Iraq war. He was told that he would be the new ambassador to Iraq but the job went instead to Christopher Hill, who was handling the North Korean nuclear negotiations. Zinni was offered the job as ambassador to Saudi Arabia, but declined.

Good decision was retention of Defense Secretary Gates. He has demonstrated competence and restraint. He has advised Bush not to bomb Iran despite pressure from Israel and said that we didn’t go to war with Russia during the Cold War. But can he balance the Clintonites? General Jones views are not well known. Will he act as a voice of change? His background as the NATO supreme commander should be an asset but in the military he was tasked with implementation rather than fresh thinking. He recommended placing a NATO force in the West Bank, which I do not think is a good idea. His idea about Afghanistan is a better one to end Bush’s war on terror and negotiate with Taliban members willing to separate from Al Qaeda.

And then there is VP Joe Biden. He has spent his entire senate career on the Foreign Relations Committee and became the chairman. Hence, he does have experience but what about his ideas and his gaffes, which have already occurred as the VP? He has not seen a war he didn’t want America to fight. In case of 1999 Kosovo war, he wanted American troops to march on Belgrade. He said that all Serbs should be sent to Nazi like concentration camps. He pushed NATO expansion up to Russian borders, backed the Iraq war, flew to Tbilisi to embrace Saakashvili in his aggression on South Ossetia and advocated intervening in Darfur.

And then there is Richard Holbrooke who was appointed as envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan (AfPac). He is credited of bringing peace to the Balkans, which is far from being permanent. Former Yugoslav republics, with exception of Slovenia, are in poor shape. Holbrooke has a talent of a bully, some use the term bulldozer. Strobe Talbot said that Holbrooke was the diplomatic equivalent of an H bomb. He used an H bomb to bully successfully Milosevic and Karadzic and bombed both the Bosnian Serbs and the Serbs in Serbia. Can he knock heads of Muslims in AfPac? India doesn’t want him to touch Kashmir as they know well what he did in the Balkans. As a result of Indian protest, Kashmir was taken out of Halbrooke’s scope.

ENCIRCLEMENT OF RUSSIA

The most important component of the U.S. foreign policies must be relationship with Russia because there is, perhaps remote but nevertheless finite chance of a nuclear confrontation. Secondly, Russia should become a partner rather than an adversary. Obama should invest a few minutes of his precious time to read Srdja Trifkovic’s US, EU, Russia: A Future “Northern Alliance”? Trifkovic comments on a statement made by Dmitry Rogozin, Russia’s NATO ambassador: “There is a new civilization emerging in the Third World that thinks that the white, northern hemisphere has always oppressed it and must therefore fall at its feet now...If the northern civilization wants to protect itself, it must be united: America, the European Union, and Russia. If they are not together, they will be defeated one by one.

Obama must completely abandon the policy of encirclement and economic strangulation of Russia with military bases and puppet governments in the name of “spreading democracy” --- policy in place since the Cold War end. Bush-41/Gorbachev agreement was violated that NATO would not expand eastward into former Soviet empire. Moscow accepted unification of Germany, pulled the Red Army out of Europe, closed its bases in Cuba, dissolved its empire without a shot fired, and sought friendship with the U.S. Clinton, however, proceeded with NATO expansion to include former Warsaw Pact members (Poland, Czech Republic, and Hungary) as well as the former Soviet Baltic republics. Bush-43 not only continued this policy but added several Balkan countries (Slovenia, Bulgaria, Rumania) with Croatia and Albania to be added in April unless Slovenia blocks Croatia’s entry. Macedonia would have been a member had it not been for a dispute with Greece over the name issue. Bush lobbied heavily for inclusion of Georgia and Ukraine into NATO. Fortunately Germany and France did not go along at the Bucharest NATO annual meeting. Moreover, on December 3, 2008, NATO foreign ministers met in Brussels and decided to ignore U.S. wishes by delaying the admission of Ukraine and Georgia indefinitely. Inclusion of Georgia would have required the U.S./NATO to go to war with Russia over Stalin’s birthplace. Prospect of a war against Russia was too much for the Europeans. The Germans in particular have painful memories of the last war with Russia.

Georgia became one of five key components of U.S./NATO encirclement of Russia doctrine. Membership of the Baltic republics in NATO represents the second component as St. Petersburg is now only 60 miles away from Estonia. The third, and currently the most important one, is Ukraine where the “orange” revolution in 2004 brought pro-American president to power. It should be noted that there was a “color revolution” attempt in Belarus. The U.S. presence in Central Asia (Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Afghanistan) represents the fourth component with the missile shield in the Czech Republic and Poland being the fifth.

Russians, well founded in historical experience of aggression from Mongols, Napoleon and Hitler, have been extremely sensitive with regard to their borders. After 9/11, Putin reached out to the U.S. and kept silent as the U.S. opened military bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. However, there were no concessions on the U.S. part so Putin felt humiliated. Subsequently, with the U.S. supported uprisings in Georgia and Ukraine, Putin was pushed to the wall and decided to counter the U.S. power in what the Russians call near-abroad. He took advantage of the Saakashvili’s blunder in South Ossetia last August to degrade the first component of encirclement. The U.S./NATO was powerless to aid Georgia. Second, pro-American Ukrainian president Yushchenko, has now been challenged. Recent Russo-Ukrainian confrontation regarding use o natural gas pipeline transport network in Ukraine illustrates best the conflict. After the 2004 Orange Revolution, Swiss based RosUkrEnergo Company, was founded to replace Eural Transgas.  The company has been close to Yushchenko and several Ukrainian oligarchs, accused of funneling money to political friends in Kiev.

The January 2009 confrontation was more about the control of the pipelines then about the price of natural gas that Russia wanted to raise to market prices. In December 2008, Condoleezza Rice and her Ukrainian counterpart Vladimir Ogrisko signed a strategic agreement --- the gas transport system would be modernized by the U.S. Yuschenko blamed Russia for the crisis, which erupted as people started freezing in some European countries. After almost a month of animosity and strained negotiations, including the EU participation, a compromise was reached between Putin and PM Tymoshenko diminishing the role of Yuschenko, who still has support from Washington as illustrated with the $15.5 billion IMF loan to Ukraine. New payments to Moscow will not be made through RosUkrEnergo. Yuschenko is being challenged in the forthcoming presidential elections not only by staunch pro-Russian Yanukovich, but also by PM Tymoshenko. In recent presidential poll Yanukovich had a lead with 23.2%; Tymoshenko was second with 12.9% and Yushchenko fourth with 8.7%.

As a result of fallout from Russia’s war with Georgia, Kyrgyzstan evicted the U.S. from an important airbase Manas in favor of Russia. In 2008, 170,000 American personnel passed through Manas on their way in or out of Afghanistan. The U.S. has already been kicked out from the Karshi-Khanabad air base in Uzbekistan. In response to the project of missile defense system deployment in the Czech Republic and Poland, Russia threatened to move missiles to Kaliningrad, on the border with Poland. Moreover, President Medvedev announced a Moscow led military alliance with seven former Soviet republics: Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The military force will consist of some 10,000 soldiers, mainly Russian paratroopers. The force will be ready to “rebuff military aggression, fight terrorism, drug trafficking and organized crime, and handle natural and technological disasters.” According to their combat potential, they must be no weaker than similar forces of NATO.” Russia and Belarus are creating a joint air defense system, too. Russian fighter SU-30MK is now #1 fighter in the world.

All these Russian actions have sent a clear message to President Obama that Moscow expects major changes in U.S. policy towards Russia and that Moscow is prepared to play hardball to make sure it happens. Russia has essentially defeated the encirclement doctrine. This fact now needs to be acknowledged and utilized in establishing partnership with the U.S in a number of areas. Thus far, Obama has responded with a move to open fresh arms reduction talks in order to replace the 1991 START, the landmark treaty that signaled the Cold War End.  Obama will propose a reduction in the number of nuclear warheads to 1,000 each. Russia has instantly welcomed Obama’s call.

In addition, Moscow has shelved plans to install own missiles at Kaliningrad after the White House signaled it would at least delay the missile shield to be installed in the Czech Republic and Poland. This project should be abandoned quickly as its serves as an irrelevant distraction. There are positive indications as Secretary Gates, attending the Krakow NATO defense ministers meeting, announced that the Obama administration was reviewing plans and hoped to reopen talks with Moscow.

At the annual Munich Security Conference, Biden spoke for the administration not Hillary Clinton. Does this suggest that foreign policy is Biden’s turf in the administration? Does it mean that Obama is shrinking Hillary’s role in the administration? In Munich, Biden announced a new tone for the administration: “We will engage. We will listen. We’ll consult. America needs the world, just as I believe the world needs America. We’ll strive to act preventively, not pre-emptively. America will not torture. Obama’s administration doesn’t believe international alliances or organizations will diminish American power. We also are determined to build a sustainable future for our planet. We are prepared to once again lead by example. With regard to Russia, he said that the last few years have seen a dangerous drift in relations. “Its time to press the reset button and revisit the many areas where we can and should be working together.” Specifically, he mentioned nuclear proliferation and confronting the threat from Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. Russia doesn’t seem to have a problem with Obama’s Afghanistan’s surge, and are willing to help, providing they are involved. I felt encouraged despite the fact that George Friedman’s report from Munich, which says that there are no changes in the Obama’s foreign policies compared to those of Bush-43!

Obama is on record saying that Iranian nuclear weapons capability is unacceptable and that he wants to enter into a dialogue with Iran. Ahmadinejad has already welcomed Obama overtures. Obama needs Russian and Chinese support.

KOSOVO

Kosovo is currently out of international focus as it is a frozen conflict. 54 countries have recognized the Kosovo unilateral declaration of independence (UDI), but 138 have not, led by the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China). In October 2008, The UN General Assembly sided with Serbia to request ruling from the ICJ regarding legality of Kosovo UDI. Only six countries opposed it: the U.S., Albania, Nauru, the Marshall Islands, Palau and Micronesia. The ICJ ruling will not come before 2010. Many legal experts are predicting positive outcome for Serbia. After the ICJ ruling, Kosovo will return to international agenda. Of course, it can happen earlier if hostilities erupt, which is not unlikely.

US Vice President Joe Biden hugs Kosovo Albanian separatist so-called prime minister Hashim Thaci on Thursday, Feb. 26, 2009. Many have provided evidence that Thaci is involved in organized crime running that involves sex slavery, drugs, and trade in organs.

President Obama has inherited this mess from George Bush and Bill Clinton and for some time to come will not be able to do much about it. However, as the relationship with Russia improves, Kosovo should become part of his agenda. Meanwhile, he will be severely handicapped due to the heavy baggage in his administration, i.e. the Clinton portion of the administration. Hillary Clinton’s repeated statements still resonate in my ears: “I made pressure on Bill to go on with bombing. It is unacceptable that such things happen at the end of the 20th century. What is NATO for if not to defend our values and way of life?”

If unchecked, Hillary could conceivably pursue her husband hubris in the Balkans, i.e. unqualified support for Muslims in Bosnia and Kosovo at the expense of Christian neighbors, primarily the Serbs and thus cause more misery to the people. It should be remembered that Al Qaeda was Clinton’s ally in Bosnia and to a lesser degree in Kosovo. Her husband is very popular in Pristina---main blvd has been named after him. There is no doubt that both Clinton and Bush-43 are extremely popular in Albania and Kosovo. However, no Muslim statesman or leader outside the Balkans has expressed gratitude for the American protection of fellow Muslims. Is this yet another Washington delusion or the Arab leaders cannot publicly praise the U.S. because of the U.S./Israel strong ties? Irrespective, the Muslim world perceives that Albanians are only nominal Muslims and think that independent Kosovo is a U.S. rather than an Islamic creation.

In her confirmation hearings, Hillary called Afghanistan a “narco state.” Of course she didn’t say that her husband’s creation of Kosovo statelet is called “Republic of Heroin.” Hillary’s grandstanding in the Balkans has already been initiated by the invitation to the Kosovo president and his Prime Minister Thaci, organized crime boss and the most notorious criminal to hold office in Europe, to visit Washington. Presumably, the next Hillary’s visitor will be former Finnish president Martti Ahtisaari, Clinton/Bush-43 servant who has designed the plan how to amputate a sovereign country in violation of international laws. Recently, Ahtisaari advocated that Serbia must be forced to recognize Kosovo. Is this compatible with the new tone of the Obama administration?

Downstream, Obama must appoint an external advisory group consisting of foreign policy experts such as ---Baker, Scowcroft, Eagleburger, Bolton, Lyons, to restrain Hillary’s hubris. Her maiden foreign trip, bucking the tradition of going to Europe first, was to visit China, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia. Presumably trip to the most populous Muslim nation in the world, where Obama spent a part of his childhood, included putting pressure on Indonesia to recognize Kosovo, which Indonesia has thus far refused to do.

In my memo to Obama, I would advise him to focus on other priorities as the Clinton/Bush 43 Greater Albania project will likely result in a grand failure and as a matter of fact already is a failure. Kosovo has no economy despite billions of Western dollars spent, outside lignite that nobody wants because it causes heavy pollution, and outside well known spectrum of criminal activities led by former KLA commanders---the kingpins in the Albanian heroin, white slave and weapons rackets. Hashim Thaci has been identified by Interpol and the German BND, as a boss of Kosovo organized crime responsible for drug trafficking, extortion and prostitution.

If it materializes, the U.S./Russia cooperation could be expanded to resolve the Kosovo issue. Serbia comes second in Eastern Europe, after Ukraine, in Moscow’s list of priorities. Perhaps, even better Obama could defer the Kosovo issue entirely to the EU, which would have an easier job of reaching accommodation with Russia. Sooner or later, Obama will be compelled to reduce substantially obscene Pentagon budget, which is larger than the sum of budgets from all other major military players in the world. At that time, Obama should close the Bondsteel military base in Kosovo and phase-out from the Balkans in the interest of the American taxpayers.

Serbian president Boris Tadic, in the Washington Times piece, reiterated his judicial approach on Kosovo, i.e. reliance on the ICJ do deliver justice. ICJ may or may not deliver justice. All one needs to do is to examine operations of the International Criminal Tribunal for former Yugoslavia (ICTY). Serbian generals, defending the country from NATO aggression, were given draconian sentences of 15-22 years imprisonment, while the Albanian war criminal, Ramush Haradinaj who murdered many people left and right including fellow Albanians, was acquitted. It certainly would not be unprecedented that political pressures on the ICJ are stronger than the rule of law. Hence, total reliance on the ICJ is imprudent. Moreover, Tadic’s approach for joining the EU is myopic He says that Serbia has no alternative, which is a nonsensical. Even if joining the EU is a viable approach and constitutes Plan A, there must be Plan B for a decision of this importance. One of alternatives is to rely on the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) plus five EU countries (Spain, Slovakia, Rumania, Greece, and Cyprus), which have refused to recognized the Kosovo independence.

Meanwhile, the situation on the ground for Kosovo Serbs is that of desperation. They have no chance to build a normal life. Those leaving in enclaves have no electricity and no job opportunities. They feel that they are on their own partially abandoned by Belgrade. Serbia’s economic and social presence is only present in Northern Kosovo. Overall, Belgrade has neither political nor military strategy to protect them.

BOSNIA

Bosnia is another grand failure in the Balkans. After 13 years from the Dayton Accords, the government is dysfunctional and governed by ethnic imperatives. The unemployment rate is ~50%.

According to Haris Silajdzic, the Muslim member of Bosnia’s three-person presidency, the reason why Bosnia is a basket case is existence of Republika Srpska. The Dayton agreement negotiated by Richard Holbrooke & Co, left Bosnia divided into two entities, Muslim-Croat Federation and a predominantly Serbian part---Republika Srpska. Silajdzic, characterized by a terrorist expert Dzevad Galijasevic as being on top of the Al Qaeda pyramid, now demands from the Obama administration to deliver on promises made to the Muslims at Dayton by Holbrooke, i.e. the unitary Bosnia under the Muslim rule from Sarajevo.

As it just happens, the U.S. intelligence agencies issued a warning report on instability in Bosnia. Hillary probably will not be able to resist siding with the Muslim claims to abolish Republika Srpska. A hint is provided by Holbrook/Ashdown piece titled The Bosnian Powder Keg published on both sides of the Atlantic followed by a New York Times’ Fears of new ethnic conflict in Bosnia.

IRAQ

Obama’s plan is to withdraw American combat forces by August 2010 and for a “residual force” of some 35-50,000 to remain at least until December 31, 2011. It is in interest of the U.S. economy to get out sooner rather than later. Hence, Obama’s withdrawal timetable is partially disappointing.

AFGHANISTAN

It should be remembered that the war against the Taliban entered its 8th year---the second longest war in the U.S. history after Vietnam. The U.S. and NATO are close to a strategic defeat. There are currently 34,000 U.S. troops on the ground with a similar number of NATO troops. Obama has authorized 17,000 more to be deployed. Thus, Afghanistan has become Obama’s war like Vietnam became LBJ’s war and Iraq Bush’s war.

Obama made a mistake. The war is not winnable. The Brits lost the war, the Soviets did too, and the U.S./NATO is likely to lose it. Taliban is willing to fight and die for Muslim theocracy and the West is not for so-called democracy, which is a pie in the sky anyway. The U.S. should team up with Russia in search of a negotiated solution. As we speak Russia is a gas station for the U.S. This cooperation should expand to cover the loss of a Manas air base.