Immediately following the massacre of Jews in Turkey, Serbian special anti-terror units (SAJ) swarmed upon the western embassies in Belgrade. An especially tight security was established around the Israeli embassy and that security still remains.

During the week of the Turkish massacre, a group of unidentified middle-eastern men has been arrested in Pancevo, a city 6 miles to the north of Belgrade. Additionally, Serbian army hospital (VMA) has also been placed under strict security although the hospital chief Dr. Zoran Stankovic has downplayed the new tight security rules as a “rudimentary and usual procedure” for a military institution.

Moreover, last Saturday a “suspicious” character was arrested in front of the US Embassy in Belgrade after concerned citizens tipped off the Serbian security forces of his “weird” behavior.

Serbian government remains silent over their increased security activities and has not commented nor publicly acknowledged that they have even been done. The only statement by the Serbian police (MUP) has been that it comments only through public statements and will not answer any questions to the media.

Recent unusual behavior by the Serbian anti-terror SAJ units, and the government silence about it in particular, indicates that the intelligence in Serbia believes that a credible terrorist threat exists that can strike western interests and Serbia itself.

Could a rising Islamic terrorism in the Balkans precipitate a change in the military alliances in the Balkans, away from Islamic governments such as in Kosovo that acquiesce to terrorism and towards the reform-minded ones in Belgrade or Skopje?

Rising Terrorist Threat in the Balkans

The rising terrorist concern in Serbia comes on the heels of a recent report by the US Congressional Task Force on Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare claiming that since “mid-August 2003, radical Islamist leaders elevated the role of the terrorism infrastructure in the Balkans as a key facilitator of a proposed escalation of conflict into the heart of Europe, Israel and the United States."

According to the report, al-Qaeda has appointed Shahid Emir Mussa Ayzi to run special recruitment operations in the Balkans. Ayzi is veteran of Afghanistan with close bin-Laden and Taliban ties.

The head of the US Congressional Task Force on Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare, Yossef Boddansky, claims that the al-Qaeda recruitment of Balkan Muslims occurs around the Islamist mosques whose numbers are rapidly expanding in Kosovo, Bosnia, Albania and Macedonia. These mosques enjoy a high level of security because the Albanians who run these regions get valuable terrorist training from the Islamists.

Says Boddansky: "the Islamists assist the local terrorists in preparing for launching spectacular terrorism into the major cities of Serbia and Montenegro, with Belgrade and Nis believed to be the top targets."

Since Boddansky’s September report, an anonymous US officer has disclosed to the Reuters news agency that among the many terrorists arrested in Iraq one also finds Albanians. Furthermore, an anonymous US security officer in Kosovo has disclosed to the Christian Science Monitor that Kosovo is controlled by Albanian mafia receptive of al-Qaeda presence.

Immediately following the Turkey massacre, moreover, an unspecified threat has triggered an elevated security response by NATO in Kosovo. "We now know that a specific threat has been made toward international organizations within Kosovo," Wing Commander Chris Thompson of KFOR said in a news Conference in November.

Serbian special anti-terrorism forces (SAJ) guarding US Embassy in Belgrade.

In the midst of NATOs heightened alert, or despite it, Kosovo president Ibrahim Rugova immediately denounced any possibility of an al-Qaeda attack as impossible. Speaking in Athens he insisted there were no people linked to extremists in Kosovo. "But this [allegations of terrorist cells] is unfounded… It could be that some people spread such allegations to destabilize Kosovo," Rugova told the Greek newspaper Kathimerini.

Meanwhile and to the contrary of what the Kosovo Albanian president claims, English reporters from the Sunday Mirror have infiltrated a cell of Muslim extremists in Kosovo and bought enough of the explosive, Semtex, to blow up over 40 passenger airplanes. In their report, the Mirror claims that the reporters have established contact with the “deputy commander of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) Niam Behljulji, known as Hulji. The group were trained by Bin Laden's men.”

Since then, reports have been made that Hulji has been assassinated by al-Qaeda because of an obvious security compromise of their organization in Kosovo.

Despite the massing evidence of al-Qaeda presence in Kosovo from military and security sources as well as the media, the officials that run Kosovo appear ready to cover up terrorist threats.

The Mirror report, for example, tells a story of a cover up when their reporters informed the British police in Kosovo of the location of the buried Semtex explosive. During the retrieval of the buried explosives the “Finnish bomb disposal squad… told us the hill had been mined during the war.”

The more senior officials that run Kosovo, however, altogether deny all allegations of terrorist threats in this Serbian province. Speaking in Bulgaria, the Deputy Special Representative for the United Nations Secretary-General in Kosovo Jean-Christian Cady said that “contrary to what is sometimes said, Kosovo is not a safe haven for organized crime and terrorism”.

Speaking during the recent regional conference on cooperation in the fight against organized crime in Belgrade, however, Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Zivkovic echoed what is only sometimes said by noting that "terrorists are still being sheltered." in Kosovo and added that the UN, unlike in Bosnia, has demonstrated lack of will in cracking down on it.

Yet Bosnia itself appears under increasing terrorist pressure. Serbian independent Weekly Telegraph reports that a string of Serbian border villages on the Muslim side of Bosnia have been overtaken by bearded middle-easterners demanding ransom from the locals.

Changing Alliances?

NATO Chief’s recent visit to Belgrade may be an underscore to the increasingly overt Western cooperation with Belgrade. Speaking to the Serbian military academy, Lord Robertson was asking the future generals of Serbia to let bygones be bygones and that in the interest of security Serbian military should accept NATOs extended hand.

Immediately following Robertson’s visit to Serbia, Belgrade government announced its expectation to join NATOs Partnership for Peace in May 2004.

The visit and the announcement follow Washington’s recent decision to reexamine American military alliances throughout the world because of the changed structure of security threats to the West.

Meanwhile, NATOs unwillingness to crack down on terrorists in Kosovo suggests that the alliance may be expecting someone else close to the alliance to do that.

In fact, early last summer Italian general in Kosovo suggested that Serbian military could partake in Kosovo patrols along with NATO as a way to uphold the Resolution 1244 that governs the conduct of the UN administration in the Kosovo province. The general, however, underlined that “presently” it would be impossible because Serbia is not associated with NATO. In May of 2004 this apparent obstacle will be eliminated.

Moreover, the warming of the West-Belgrade relationship may be what was behind Serbia’s recent rather vociferous and a stern rejection of the UN plan for future of Kosovo. After reviewing the UNs proposal, the Serbian government declared it "unacceptable in its current form as a way to solve the Kosovo crisis" claiming that "none of the objections and suggestions could be seriously considered".

Finally, Washington’s backing of the Democratic Party candidate Boris Tadic for the upcoming elections in Serbia also alludes to the Western’s desire to reconstruct its military alliance in the Balkans. While not compromised by political and financial scandals during the DOS era, Boris Tadic was, more significantly for Washington, a former Defence Minister that purged the Milosevic-era generals from the Serbian military and replaced them with his own men.

Indeed, nationalist Radicals, still riding high from their recent strong showing in the polls, may have gotten the typical massage to move out of the Tadic’s way. “Ultra-nationalist leader whose Radical Party is expected to win strong support in this month's general election was hurt in a car crash on Wednesday but his life was not in danger.” noted Reuters.

As a favorite method of a Balkan political disposal, another political car crash once again demonstrates that practicing politics in the Balkans is indeed a dangerous business.