Moreover, the term named “Cultural genocide” is a well-known process in Kosovo where systematically all historical presence of the Serbian-Orthodox religious heritage, is being destroyed by groups of fanaticized Albanians. They are often supported by Wahhabi elements that found a safe haven in the area and regularly proselytize new members. Already since 2003 the US Congressional Task Force on Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare stated the presence of the so-called “White Devils” (1) meaning the recruitment of Albanians into extremist Islamic organizations directly linked to terrorism. These persons allegedly due to their Caucasian appearances would be more capable of conducting terrorist acts in Europe and move in relative ease than Asians, Africans or Arab descent would-be-bombers.

The ex-security head of OSCE in Kosovo-Thomas Gambil- revealed on late 2005 that the area is filled with organized crime figures and there is a clear lack of power by the UN side to deal with these destabilizing forces that are a Pan-Balkan problem and not just a local one. He also added “Incidents of sexual violence, torture, arson, murder, kidnapping, and verbal threats were allegedly widespread as part of an organized and successful campaign conducted "right under the U.N.'s nose" (2). Further, it is essential to note the numerous threats and arsons made by Albanians towards UN and other international personnel during the past few years, despite the fact that the international community was the decisive factor of their newly born empowerment and a source of massive economic assistance. With the Kosovo status negotiations reaching their climax, the pressure towards UN reaches a dramatic level (3) and one wonders what will be the case for the security of the personnel involved in this international mission.

The KLA is still operational, albeit in a different mode and for a different reason. After the 1999 war, some of its armaments were handed into UN custody, most of it to be found in warehouses across the Province. Needless to say that these weapons can be relatively easily retrieved by KLA members in a matter of days, if not hours. There were approximately 25,000 KLA members active in mid-1999 and 5,000 of those joined the Kosovo Protection Corps (4) that are forming the official paramilitary forces of the Albanians. Moreover they serve as the nucleus in case KLA needs to re-establish itself.

The Kosovo Liberation Army was able to muster a considerable force in 1999 by alerting the whole of the male-Kosovo populous, aged from 18 to 50 years. The denial of service was often punished with summary executions, or house arsons and blackmails. It is interesting that KLA ordered all males to join its forces and that include those leaving abroad –USA, Germany, Belgium-. As a result quite of few resettled in Kosovo and having dual citizenship they are able to greatly assist the local Albanian guerilla forces in issue regarding “International logistics support”.

KLA had also its Jihad twist by the voluntary assistance of war-hardened Mujahedin that formed the guerilla unit in Drenica. There are reports from the United Nations (5) that present a worrying situation regarding the international Jihad mercenaries and the assistance for the Albanian guerilla warfare. Furthermore a reputable source from Canada (6) further attests to the short-sighted Western policy and the interrelation between KLA and international terrorism. Actually there are thousands of Open Source Intelligence information from American, French, German and Russian sources that fully confirm the link and depict a dramatic situation; as well as a danger to the European security. A real threat that may prove this spring to be a “Hot” one is the culminations between KLA-UCK and the Albanians in FYR Macedonia. More specifically there are various sources that indicate unofficially of a split between moderates and hardliners in Tetovo. The latter are eager to take direct action like the one in 2001 by the UCPMB organization, in case Kosovo is not declared independent. It is fair to assume that the internal Albanian political quagmires will have their ramification on the wider regional stability.

KLA-UCK, itself was portrayed as a Leninist - Maoist organization that had a concrete left –wing ideology. That is actually half-truth, since the original nucleus of KLA was LPK a semi-Maoist and semi-nationalistic entity that was financed and supported by Hoxha’s Communist regime in Albania (7) – since the early 80’s. In essence the demographic upturn from the early 50’s and on in favor of the Albanians in Kosovo; provided the stimulus for the involvement of Albania in order to secure in the future a “Great Albania”. After the collapse of Communism Albania was not in the position to assist KLA, that gradually became a mafia-like organization spreading its wings across the Albanian Diaspora in Europe (8). Further, the Yugoslav wars in the 90s provided ample chances for KLA to profit through contraband activities and strengthen its ties with the wider Islamic movement. By the time USA gave its support to KLA in the late 1998 (9) the latter had become a hybrid guerilla force that combined nationalism, narcotics trade and attachments between Maoist and Islamists in one of the most peculiar paramilitary forces ever formed. The only logical conclusion is that KLA members were interested in securing the vision of “Great Albania” by all means possible and the ideological masques were used on and off in order to secure assistance in their aims.

The only influence that could prove of decisive nature is the one of Islamic extremism, because it relates to the drugs trade from Asia (10). Kosovo Albanians then face a self-damaging trade off: should the Albanian heads want to diminish Islamic influence in Kosovo in order to please the West, they are running the risk of loosing their drug suppliers in the Islamic East and damaging severely their main source of income, apart from the various retaliation moves by the Islamists that might prove to be destructive for the fragile Kosovo societal scene.

The role of the other states

Already, US and UK are seen as states that will recognize an independent Kosovo, even though the former has raised doubt through public comments by statesmen like John R. Bolton (11). Furthermore over the past few years a very dynamic Serbian-American Lobby has emerged in USA that has gained wider acceptance and campaigns against Kosovo independence. This energetic Serbian Diaspora presence is supported by various political actors within America that view the interests of the country on a long term geostrategic level and are not willing to associate themselves with suspicions of cajoling terrorists and organized crime figures.

France being another member of the Security Council, has kept a very low profile and it is estimated it will follow the US-UK suit, gaining in exchange “sphere of influence” in the new Balkan scenery. The last of the “Big Five”, China is not really interested in meddling with the Balkan affairs. The days where Milosevic Administration was eager in approaching Beijing are long gone, even though it is not improbable of assuming a Russian-Chinese alliance when the resolution will be brought to the limelight.

Germany now, seems to be lukewarm of Kosovo independence, since it is really interested in expanding its industrial and commercial presence in the Balkans and it views Belgrade as a more suitable partner than the “Albanian factor”. Berlin uses its influence in order to seek a compromise thus safeguarding its interests on both sides.

Russia has already stated that it will not recognize the independence of Kosovo (12) and it will veto such a resolution in the Security Council. As it is well understood, such stance from Moscow enchases its role as the patron of Serbia and creates a rift in the Balkans not seen since the years of the Cold War. Moreover Russia has expressed its interest around North Ossetia and Abkhazia Provinces in Georgia that also claims for independence and in this case their goal is supported by Russia. Moscow then aims to win either way. Should Kosovo become independent Russia gains a precedent for its claims in Georgia. On the other hand it would always be able to exert its influence in Belgrade and possibly seek a more energetic role in South Eastern Europe. On this latter aspect, it is interesting to note that Putin’s foreign policy has managed to expand considerably Moscow’s reach in the Balkan Peninsula. The recent signing of the Burgas-Alexandroupoli pipeline, with a 51% Russian majority (13), the considerable control on Bulgarian and Serbian energy industries makes Russia a very important partner in the Balkan security spectrum. As long as the Anglosaxon influence capitalizes towards the Albanian side, Moscow will react by supporting Belgrade and in today’s environment far more efficiently than Yeltsin’s Administration.

The aim of Clinton’s Administration of curbing Russian influence back in 1999, was short-sighted. USA is now risking its long-standing interests that lay with established geopolitical entities-Like Serbia- in order to secure a pact with Albanians that don’t have state consciousness on a macro-historical level and might prove to be unstable in the near future; besides their connections with international terrorist movements that makes the situation far more dramatic.

The current available information and analyses point out to a Russian Veto after all and to a compromise being sought in the UN chambers that will not fully recognize independence to Kosovo-at least typically.

Other countries such as, Spain, Rumania, Slovakia, Greece, Indonesia, and other are opposed to Kosovo independence either for reasons relating to existence of minorities in their soil or for geopolitical balance considerations. Israel seems as well to oppose independence of Kosovo, especially after a visit of a Serbian delegation there last autumn. The main reason would be, probably, attributed to the fears of Wahhabi expansion in Kosovo that has proved to be in numerous cases as a hideout for suspected terrorists and interrelated organized crime figures.

In addition, the creation of an independent Kosovo that will be dependent on years to come on four sources of income: EU capital, organized crime proceedings (14), Albanian Diaspora donations and Islamic funds, is a frightening prospect for European states that re-discover the Balkans as the power-keg of the Continent. Of course Kosovo has considerable mineral wealth (15), especially abundant reservoirs of lignite that could be exported across Europe. The only problem in this investment would be the multiple of actors nowadays influencing the Province, thus exerting all shorts of pressure that may lead to political instability, rather than an investor’s paradise. Moreover, due to its geographical placement, Kosovo is bound to conduct commercial business with Serbia in most respects, and any independence resolution will severely hinder its ability to progress economically for the long-term. Lastly the coal rich area of Trepca and industrial conglomerate is fought between various British, Greek, French and American interests that will eventually leave little space to any independent Kosovo government to share a part of the mineral wealth involved (16).

Prospects

The situation in Kosovo is one that could be best described as a political and diplomatic nightmare in the midst of a regional storm. The aspirations of the Albanian irredentism, USA & Russian global policies and the Serbian determination not to suffer a dramatic loss of national territory, all add to an explosive mixture of unknown proportions.

If the Albanians feel not satisfied by a wider-autonomy regime in Kosovo there is the potential of a KLA re-establishment and a consequent NATO reaction that will create the framework of a war between international community and Kosovo-Albanians. Already NATO deploys more troops in the area (17), in order to secure positions in a future conflict. Moreover according to an important briefing (18) Serbian SOF’s have taken precautionary action by gathering forces in Northern Kosovo in order to protect Serbs residing there of hostile Albanian action. An Albanian move on FYROM in order to pressure the international community on independence demands (19) is still a possibility, and that is the reason behind the decision of the FYR Macedonia Government to back “Kosovo blueprint” that paves the way to independence (20). Of course a “Bon gesture” by FYROM is of little use if independence is not declared after all and the Albanian factor plays the destabilization card in order to secure more concessions.

On overall, all Balkan states, bar Rumania could be drawn into a series of regional conflicts within the coming weeks, should the Albanians form a strategy of tension in all regions where there is an Albanian minority and most importantly try energizing the KLA reserves. That is exactly the scenario of the “Hot Spring” like it was the case in FYR Macedonia in 2001, only in a much wider geographical terrain this year and with opponents not clearly defined right now. The option of the “Cool summer” development is the one that predicts a pressure by USA towards the Albanian side not to overplay itself –With the use of the usual stick and carrot policy- that means the safeguarding of a wide autonomy, but not formal independence. In that case conflicts might simmer but will not be dramatic; no more at least than those of the previous years.

Lastly one could state the “Explosive autumn” scenario, on which the international community fix on to disband all narcotics and terrorist related networks in the area, a move surely provocative for the short-term, albeit beneficial for the global stability on the long-term. The only certainty nowadays is uncertainty and that includes climate. “Hot spring”, “cool summer” and “Explosive autumn” surely seem to resemble the wider climate changes on the planet that have become unpredictable and contain many surprises for the currently standing realities and perceptions.

References:

(1) An article on the US Congressional Task Force on Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare report on the White devils

(2) Statements made by the Ex-Security Head of OSCE in Kosovo-2005-

(3) Article on KLA attack to UN in Kosovo

(4) Kosovo Protection Corps

(5) United Nations Human Rights Council report

(6) Global Research Paper on Jihad in the Balkans and Kosovo connection

(7) Paper on the history of KLA

(8) Apocalyptic report on KLA

(9) Article by the AIM Organization on the felicities concerning KLA

(10) Serbianna.com Briefing on the organized crime connection between Kosovo heads of crime and their Muslim counterparts

(11) Bolton's remarks on Kosovo status

(12) Information on the Russian stance on Kosovo

(13) News on the Burgas-Alexandroupoli pipeline agreement

(14) A report on Antiwar.com on financing Kosovo organizations

(15) A presentation of Kosovo mineral wealth by the European Union

(16) Three, | 1 | 2 | 3 | interesting reports from USA and Chinese source on the Trepca mineral wealth dispute

(17) Information by Serbianna.com on NATO troops deployment

(18) Security briefing by balkanalysis.com on Serbian Special Operations Forces movements in Kosovo

(19) An article of Axis Globe edition on relations between Kosovo-Albanians and FYROM

(20) Macedonia backs Kosovo blueprint, defying Serbia