Released : May 22, 2006 10:22 AM

PRISTINA, Serbia-Montenegro-Montenegro's independence from Serbia could give new momentum to the secessionist movement just across the border in troubled Kosovo province, which has sought for nearly two decades to separate itself from Serbia.

To Kosovo's ethnic Albanian majority, which wants full independence, that goal seemed closer Monday after results from Sunday's referendum confirmed the victory of the pro-independence bloc in neighboring Montenegro, a former republic of Yugoslavia, which since 2002 has been part of a loose union with Serbia.

Kosovo, which had been an autonomous province of Serbia, was stripped of its autonomy in 1989 by Slobodan Milosevic. Although still formally a province, it has been administered by the United Nations since a 1999 NATO air war halted a crackdown by Serb forces on separatist ethnic Albanians.

Serbia and the province's ethnic Albanians, who make up over 90 percent of its 2 million citizens, have opposing views of Kosovo's future. Ethnic Albanians demand full independence, while Serbs want the province to remain under Belgrade's control.

Talks mediated by the United Nations are under way, and some form of independence is the most likely outcome.

Montenegro's newly won independence makes anything less than statehood for Kosovo unthinkable, ethnic Albanians contend.

"The concept of keeping Kosovo in Serbia is untenable. Montenegro's independence creates a precedent that is undeniable, and Kosovo's independence is now inevitable," said Dukagjin Gorani, an ethnic Albanian analyst.

"Six hundred thousand people had the right to a referendum, and 2 million don't have the right to self-determination?" he said, comparing the populations of Montenegro and Kosovo.

Though Montenegro's secession has no legal effect on Kosovo's final status, currently being negotiated by ethnic Albanian and Serbian officials, the separation could have a psychological effect, said Alex Anderson, the Kosovo director of International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think-tank.

"We've expected this split from Serbia of Montenegro and there's an expectation of domino-effect, but there's no direct link," Anderson said. "It has a psychological effect, though the processes are different."

Kosovo's ethnic Albanian leadership was quick to hail Montenegro's independence with an eye to its own quest.

"Before the end of the year, Kosovo, too, will join Montenegro as a new state and these new countries will be an important factor for stability of the whole region," Prime Minister Agim Ceku said.

Veton Surroi, an ethnic Albanian opposition leader, said that the "democratic victory ... should serve as an encouragement for all the freedom-lovers and democrats engaged in making Kosovo independent."

Kosovo's ethnic Serbs, too, foresee effects of Montenegro's referendum.

"Montenegrin independence could make things worse for Kosovo Serbs. The outcome of the referendum is a stab in the back for (Kosovo) Serbs," said Kosovo Serb leader Marko Jaksic.

Oliver Ivanovic, a moderate Kosovo Serbs leader, said the referendum "will have psychological effect. Its results will give a boost to Kosovo Albanians and their efforts to achieve Kosovo's independence. It will have destructive effects on Serbian population in the province."

Although Montenegrins and Kosovo's ethnic Albanians share a strong desire for independence, there are major differences in the two cases.

Serbian ties in both Kosovo and Montenegro are very strong, dating far back into history.

Montenegro shares with Serbia the same Orthodox Christian religion, language, culture and history. Serbia has opposed the separation, arguing the links are too strong to be broken.

Kosovo's mainly ethnic Albanian population is largely Muslim, with its own language. The ethnic Albanians insist that Serbia has lost the right to govern them after a war that left an estimated 10,000 of their ethnic kin slain.

But the province was the seat of the medieval Serbian state and the Serbian Orthodox Church, and Serbs cherish it as the cradle of their history and culture.

Ethnic Albanians and Serbs have led separate lives since the early 1990s, with a history of hostilities and conflicts.

The status of the ethnic Serb minority in a future Kosovo is a major point of concern in the negotiations, which are expected to steer the two sides toward a solution by the end of the year.