By M. Bozinovich

July 11, 2006 -- Back in May, an internal UN document was leaked to the media in which the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) is planning to help facilitate Kosovo Serb exodus in an event of a status decision. A UNHCR spokeswoman confirmed the existence of this internal report to Reuters saying that its reason is to "be ready to help a certain number of people who may be affected by a decision".

As the UNHCR spokeswoman did not specify which status decision will trigger Kosovo Serb exodus it follows then that any decision on Kosovo's status will be a trigger that will initiate a Muslim Albanian pogrom of Kosovo Christians.

Last week, villagers in Kosovo Serb enclaves have been visited by international forces seeking complete lists of people that live in them and suggested to the Serb villagers to group themselves so they can be taken out of the area swiftly. Additionally, Municipal Council in south Serbia has confirmed that UNHCR has been scouting the accommodation capacities of the region in order to provide shelter to cleansed Kosovo Serbs.

Violent intimidation of Christian Serbs continues unabated across Kosovo with the latest one occurring on the World Cup final Sunday when the win by Italy was celebrated with a mortar attack on the Serb village of Grabac.

Meanwhile, in its recent 2006 Brussels Declaration, the OSCE has signaled the Kosovo Albanians that this influential group of states is reiterating its commitment to a "respect [of] sovereignty, territorial integrity and internationally recognized borders of states" and is "Calling upon all parties concerned to engage constructively in dialogue to resolve the future status of Kosovo, and to seek a solution through negotiations on the basis of the principles mentioned".

Additionally, OSCE is endorsing "British and Austrian EU Presidency initiatives on developing a comprehensive security sector reform concept for South Eastern Europe," that includes Serbia by "taking into account a range of relevant actors in this field."

Prior to Serbian Prime Minister's tour of the West, the Austrian FM Ursula Plasnik went to Belgrade (and not Pristina) to meet with Kostunica, and days later Kostunica's first visit was London. Plasnik's decision whom not to meet with may be indicative as to whom Austria and UK deem "relevant actors" in the region.

Kostunica is currently visiting Washington where he'll undoubtedly invoke the OSCE resolution as a diplomatic support and perhaps discuss the security reform logistics of interest to Washington. It is widely expected that Serbia and US will soon sign a military cooperation agreement (SOFA) that will pave the way for presence of US military personnel in Serbia.

SOFA, or Status of Forces Agreement, is "usually an integral part of the overall military bases agreement that allows U.S. military forces to operate within the host country". Incidentally, the Annex 2, Part B, point 3 of the Military Technical Agreement that governs military presence in Kosovo requires that the "parties will agree a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) as soon as possible," so it is rather puzzling as to why did it take 7 years for that to be done.

Finally, rumors abound, from unnamed sources, that the UN chief status negotiator Marti Ahtisaari may soon be toast because Washington wants a status resolution by the fall and Ahtisaari is incapable of getting one. It is important to note that Washington is not blaming Belgrade for the delay on the status decision but uses, perhaps the very same unnamed sources, to blame Russia for a delay in "independence" of Kosovo.

"The Russians' focus now is on timing," said a senior Western official in Kosovo. "This is where the Contact Group will find things could become difficult."

If Russians are focusing on timing of the decision and Washington is finding this to be a difficulty, it implies that Washington is also very focused on timing so that this issue may also be the topic during talks with Kostunica.

What emerges here as an unknown is an uncertainty of Belgrade's response to the virtually certain Muslim Albanian violence in Kosovo given any decision. Some of that uncertainty may be cleared up by reading the tea leaves of Kostunica's visit to Washington.